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TK's Black Book - St George Illawarra Dragons

talkingleague

TK's simple guide to the St George Illawarra Dragons fantasy prospects for 2025.


The Dragons were only a game from the finals in 2024 despite predictions they would easily get the spoon. The team adjusted to Shane Flanagan's gritty style of play but in the end just were not good enough. The signed dads army in Cook, Gutho and Val but the success of the team will be on how Illias and Flanagan combine in the halves. Not exactly a flashy halves combo but can see another simple game plan which could be effective.


Prediction - Its too easy to say they will finish bottom 4. They will compete hard and finish in the 9th-12th range.


Dragons 2025 Player Movements

2025 Gains

Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2026), Clinton Gutherson (Parramatta Eels, 2027), Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys, 2027), Lachlan Ilias (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2026)

2025 Loses

Jack Bird (Wests Tigers), Max Feagai (The Dolphins), Ben Hunt (Brisbane Broncos), Zac Lomax (Parramatta Eels), Jesse Marschke (North Sydney Bears), Dan Russell (Warrington Wolves), Savelio Tamale (Canberra Raiders), Alec Tuitavake (Leigh Leopards), Paul Turner (released)




Bit of a dads army of recruits. Back line picks itself. The starting middle and rotation of the bench is likely the changes that may happen here. Toby Couchman, Emre Guler and Blake Lawrie would be in a 3 way battle to start. Hame Sele would be in the mix but I think they take a soft approach given his health issues.



The Draw and Game Day Squad

Byes - round 3,12,16


Game Day Squad allows a true focus on weekly match ups. I would be looking to load up on the Gutherson and Holmes in the following match ups.


NRL Fantasy perspective

Another team that’s fantasy value diminishes due to two byes in the opening 12 games. They will play the major bye rounds of 15 and 18 and will actually be one of the first teams to finish their byes with their last in 16, so more consideration should be placed into the major purchases from this team later in the year.


Fantasy relevant players for round 1 - Lachlan Illias


2025 NRL Fantasy Fortunes (slide across to view full notes)


Player

Price

NRL Fantasy Av

GameDay Squad Av

Notes

Damien Cook

$757K

56.7

58

Spilt role with Liddle likely to see a decline in his numbers. Track but avoid for round 1.

Jacob Liddle

$708K

53

50.4

Given a reduced role from the bench, could see a steep decline. Track though as injuries through the season could see him well priced at some stage.

Jayden Su'a

$661K

49.5

48.2

Priced at potential. Avoid

Valentine Holmes

$652K

48.8

54

Strike centre who will likely score pretty similar. Avoid for round 1 but could be a play in the late season

Jack De Belin

$637K

47.8

46.6

On the decline, with Flanno reducing his role with a stack of middles. Avoid

Tom Eisenhuth

$616K

46.2

43.3

Decent fantasy season in 2024 but looks fully priced in and never great to take a player off a career year

Clint Gutherson

$600K

42.6

46.5

Generally scores most when taking the goal kicking, with Holmes and Flanno no upside here. Did have higher scores when Moses was out at Parra and he assumed extra attacking responsibility, could be in for a similar uptick. Would be a massive punt early season, just wait and check him out.

Luciano Leilua

$560K

41.9

40.9

Has slight upside with a full preseason at his new club. Still not enough to take for round 1.

Toby Couchman

$528K

39.5

39.7

Great PPM of 1.04 but only averaging 37.9 mins. If he cracks a start monitor the role he plays.

Tyrell Sloan

$496K

37.1

41.7

Will move permantenly to the wing. Too much uncertainity to take at these price levels.

Raymond Faitala-Mariner

$472K

35.4

34.9

Has releveance if he starts. Games above 60 mins has a 52 average from 79 mins (9 games). Keep a track on but seems unlikely.

Sione Finau

$350K

35

38.4

Only the 1 game in the NRL and well behind in the depth cart. NSW Cup had 15 games for a 31.7 fantasy average.

Moses Suli

$475K

34.3

36.3

All the gear with no idea, only cracked 50 twice all year. Best to avoid

Kyle Flanagan

$440K

33

36.5

Did well at the position and made some cash. Fully priced now and no need to go any where near

Michael Molo

$472K

32

31.6

Didn't get many opportuntities or minutes. Avoid

Christian Tuipulotu

$418K

31.3

35.1

Had some good scores in games he scored tries. Should see slight improvement but not enough to be relevant.

Blake Lawrie

$417K

31.2

29.9

Fell off a cliff in 2024 after a breakthrough 2023. 2023 he had a 47.7 average in 52.3 mins starting but form and injury saw a significant decline. One to track

Hame Sele

$408K

30.5

29.1

Priced at his potential. Given his health scare, be interesting how the Dragons manage him in 2025.

Mathew Feagai

$401K

30

30

Priced at his potential, with limited upside. Avoid

Jesse Marschke

TBA

30

28

Will back up the halves but no upside here. 8 games in NSW Cup for a 50.1 average.

Mikaele Ravalawa

$374K

28

31

Fell out of favour and likely to be moved on. Avoid

Conor Muhleisen

TBA

27.4

27.1

Will now be third in line to start at hooker. Avoid

Ryan Couchman

$358K

26.8

25.4

Great PPM of 0.96 like his brother didn't get the opportunities or minutes. Cracking numbers in NSW Cup with a 62.1 average in 14 games

Lachlan Illias

$400K

24

21.4

37.6 av (2023), 30 av (2022) when starting at halfback. Priced at 30 so a bit of upside playing in this squad. For me ATM too much risk given the basement price halves on offer. Keep on the watchlist for now

Ben Murdoch-Masila

TBA

17.8

18.1

Back end of career and never fantasy relevant

Lyhkan King-Togia

$230K

17.5

17.5

Young half who will be predominantly a back up. Watchlist

Viliami Fifita

$250K

11

11.4

Young prop who didn't many opportunities. Would be well behind on the depth chart.

Fa'amanu Brown

TBA

9.8

8.2

Back end of career and more a utility. Had 5 games in NSW Cup for 44.6 av. Avoid

Corey Allan

$300K

0

0

Missed the entire season with an ACL injury. Never been fantasy relevant any way.

Alec Tuitavake

TBA

0

0

No games in the NRL and only average numbers in NSW Cup. 22 games for a 34 av

Hamish Stewart

$230k

0

0

Young edge back rower who only transitions into the NRL squad for 2025.Likely behind a stack of forwards.

Dylan Egan

$230k

0

0

Young rookie who would be in the mix to crack a role in 2025. NSW Cup saw decent stats with 24 games and a 47.8 average.

Finau Latu

$230K

0

0

18 year old lock who would not be ready for NRL. Keep on the watchlist for future seasons

Loko Pasigiki Tonga

$230K

0

0

Man giant at 121kg at only 19. Being pushed already for inclussion in the NRL top 17. Watchlist

Emre Guler

$380K

28.5

26.8

Would be a chance to start and is priced at 28. Limited starts over the last 2 season and has a career average of 35.4 in 42 mins av. I don't see the upside to take him when there is Royce Hunt and Tom Amone at basement price.


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