And welcome back to The Mercato for the final time. In this farewell edition, we’re going to have a look into the future and how the game of NRL Fantasy can evolve in 2025 and beyond.
But first, the obligatory look at how the Talking League team is going.
Note that this shot below is before final updates, so expect the JWAH to find another 30 points down the back of the couch. As for my season, you can see that it’s petered out into what will likely be a top 2.5k finish.
The History of the Game
Before we look forward, it’s important to look back at the path trodden by NRL Fantasy Coaches over the years and how see how it is reflected in the current game.
Player Positions – Players can be picked in one of six positions: Hooker (HOK), Middle Forward (MID), Edge Forward (EDG), Halves (HLF), Centres (CTR), Wing-Fullbacks (WFB). The positional mix was last changed in 2021 when MIDs replaced Front Row Forwards (FRF) and EDG replaced 2nd Row Forwards (2RF), as it was seen fit to group players that played lock forward with the props.
Squad Size – currently the game requires coaches to pick a 21-man squad, consisting of a starting 13 (1 HOK, 3 MID, 2 EDG, 2 HLF, 2 CTR, 3 WFB) and a positionless bench. Before this change in 2018, coaches were required to pick a 25-man squad with a starting 13 (1 HOK, 2 FRF, 3 2RF, 2 HLF, 2 CTR, 3 WFB) and a restricted bench (1 HOK, 2 FRF, 3 2RF, 2 HLF, 2 CTR, 2 WFB).
Trades – currently coaches get access to 44 trades, with the final 8 unlocking at round 20. This has been the case for the first two seasons of 17 teams; in 2022 coaches received 36 in total with the final 4 locked away until round 19.
Byes – since the Dolphins entered the comp in 2023, the NRL draw has contained a major bye round period starting in round 13 and finishing in round 20. During this period, there are three “major” bye rounds (13, 16 and 19) where seven teams have a bye and three “minor” bye rounds (14, 17 and 20) where three teams have a bye. In the “major” bye rounds, coaches were only required to field a starting 13 of scoring players. The remaining rounds in the season are “standalone” byes where just one team has a bye with each team having three byes across the season. Between 2018 and 2022, there were just two “major” bye rounds where 8 eight teams had one bye each (except for 2020 where there were no byes due to the pandemic interruption). Up until 2017, the NRL season had a major bye round period that started in Round 12 and finished in Round 18 that included three “major” byes rounds in 12, 15 and 18 with each team having two byes across the period.
Captain/Vice Captain Tiles – since 2018, the Captain (C) and Vice Captain (VC) Tiles have locked the selected player at the commencement of the first game. This eliminated the ability to perform the “captain’s loophole”, where coaches would move the captained player to the bench. This was mostly a reaction to Angus Crichton scoring 121 points against the Titans in the opening game of Round 15 (a major bye round) in 2017. With the ability to shuffle the captained player around, coaches who placed the VC cashed in for 242 points. As the C and VC are locked, coaches can not trade these players out or reverse trades involving this players after the commencement of the first game of the round.
Salary Cap – Currently, the salary cap sits at $10m since it was last uplifted for the 2023 season. With the magic number sitting at 13,750 to start the season, it put the average price point per starting team player at 34.6, compared to 33.3 in 2023 when the magic number was 14,300.
Scoring – The core statistical categories have remained since NRL Dream Team converted to NRL Fantasy, with player’s score counting once they take the field. In 2021, we saw the introduction of the Forced Turnover (TO) for a turnover tackle or intercept worth 4 points. In 2022, we saw the introduction of In-Goal Escapes (+2) and Six-again Infringements (-1). We also saw adjustments to tackle busts (+3 to +2), kick metres (+1 per 20m to +1 per 30m) and offloads to hand (+2 to +4).
The Current State of the Game
Overall, I think the game is in a great place with a decent balance between making the game challenging for experienced campaigners but not overly complicated for newer players. The adjustments made to the game to accommodate the changes to the NRL draw in 2023 were well thought out and executed. By reducing the scoring contingent in major bye rounds from 17 to 13 took some of the expected strain off those rounds, meaning that eight additional trades were adequate to account for this and the weekly standalone byes. Does that mean that the game is perfect and can’t be improved? Of course not, so let’s look at some potential areas for adjustment.
Update Trade
Currently in NRL Fantasy, when a player locks due to being C/VC or their team’s match commences. As a result, any trade that the player is involved in can not be reversed. This can have further ramifications for coaches making multiple trades in a round, as it might prevent them reversing a cash-out trade or a pair of trades.
In NRL Supercoach, coaches are able to use the update trade function to “update” the part of the trade is not yet locked. This allows the coach to switch the “unlocked” player out to another player that is also not yet locked, provided it fits the positional and/or salary cap requirements of the team.
Let’s use an example with the round 27 fixtures. In this hypothetical team, Harry Grant has been rested on Team List Tuesday (TLT) for the Storm and the fantasy coach is deciding between James Tedesco and Dylan Edwards as the replacement. The fixtures are as follows:
Broncos v Storm – Thursday 7:50pm
Rabbitohs v Roosters – Friday 8pm
Panthers v Titans – Saturday 7:35pm
Because the Storm play the first game, the coach has to make the decision on their Grant replacement. Not rating the Titans, the coach goes for Dylan Edwards. In the 24-hour cut-off at Friday 7:35pm, Edwards is cut due to rolling his ankle in captain’s run. With the update trade function, the coach can change Edwards to Tedesco despite Grant already locked. Without the update trade function, the coach can’t update the trade.
If NRL Fantasy was to only make one change in 2025, this would be it for me. The update trade would save most coaches 3-4 trades throughout the season, given the amount of mid-round chaos we’ve experienced this season. Hopefully the programmers can code it in, because I can see it being a very popular addition.
Squad Size
Currently, 21-Man Squads has worked quite successfully since its introduction in 2018. There was scope to lift the number in 2023 with the re-emergence of the Major Bye Period; however that wasn’t required when the scoring contingent in the Major Bye Rounds was reduced to 13.
Personally, I would prefer it if the squad size remained at 21. But if I was to make a case for increasing it, I would point it primarily at the Minor Bye Rounds in 14, 17 and 20. With three teams on the bye and the requirement for origin players to backup after a Wednesday duel, having an extra player or two to cover those weeks could help coaches save trades. After all, the later coaches run out of trades, the more engagement the NRL Fantasy website, app and content gets. The other argument would be that on TLT, teams are required to name 22 players for the sake of realism NRL Fantasy could also adopt this.
Trades
I feel like the number of trades is an aspect of the game that NRL Fantasy has spot on. I would prefer that the game looks to make changes in other aspects.
C/VC Locking
The fact that coaches can’t enact the Captain’s Loophole is something that I have no issue with, I like the fact coaches must make the call before first lockout. However, the Vice Captain is something that I believe can be re-visited. Most coaches rely on the Vice Captain no more than four times a season, making a case to reduce the restrictions on it. Allowing coaches to move the VC tile until the player selected locks would enable more trade flexibility (as you can’t reverse trades involving the VC) and ensure coaches at least get a captaincy score instead of missing out should both not be DNPs.
Scoring
The scoring system has a nice balance between showcasing the attacking stars of the competition as well as rewarding the hard workers. With that in mind, I probably wouldn’t adjust too much although I have two stat categories that I would like to see.
The first is the Successful Kick Recovery (SKR), which would see the kicker be rewarded 2 points for recovering the kick they made. We’ve seen great kickers like Sam Walker and Reece Walsh put in a grubber or chip for themselves, successfully recover the ball and only be rewarded with kick metres. If a player makes a line break that sees the team advance down the field to the same extent, that player gets a line break, run metres and potentially tackle busts. I feel like rewarding kickers who successfully recover their chip or grubber is a great way to account for creative attacking play. It’s also objective (unlike try assists), as the +2 would only be rewarded when the ball doesn’t touch another player before the kicker regains it. The addition of this category wouldn’t distort the game too much due to the rarity of these plays, and a +2 I feel is consistent with Forced Drop-Outs (FDO) and Escape From In-Goal (EFIG).
The second category I had in mind was Reportable Offence (RO). Not all penalties are the same, so I don’t think a player that gets pinged for being offside should suffer the same fantasy consequences as a player that gets pinged for a dangerous tackle or dissent. To add some distinction between these penalties, I would like to see a -1 applied for each time a player is put on a report. Like the SKR, it would be an objective stat category as the NRL match log records every time a player is put on report and being -1 wouldn’t distort the existing meta too much.
Early Exit Insurance
Coaches across the community for years have called for what I would call “Early Exit Insurance”. That is, coaches can activate “insurance” by removing a player from their scoring 17 should they exit the game early due to injury, failed HIA or other means.
I’ve always been strongly against any measures that protect against bad scores that aren’t already in the game, such as looping a player that plays early in the round. There’s a number of reasons for this, with the first one being that fantasy sports has always had an element of luck to it, much like the NRL itself. Allowing coaches to insure against bad scores lessens the opportunities for those behind the eight ball in overall or head-to-head matchups to catch up.
By allowing coaches to airbrush their scores, it would lead to “scoreflation”. Yes, it’d be great for your team to be able to remove the score of a player who gets concussed in the first 10 minutes. But chances are a lot of other coaches will also have that player and be able to do the same thing, especially earlier in the season when teams are more similar.
The other consideration is how does this impact the rolling averages of players. Often, we can afford some of the guns players because we can purchase them at a discount during the season after an early exit. Two classic examples are James Tedesco and Reuben Garrick, who have suffered early HIAs which have enabled coaches to scoop them up at below-market rates. If Early Exit Insurance is enacted, it would not surprise me to see NRL Fantasy freeze the price movements on these players, like Fantasy Premier League when a player is injured or leaves the Premier League on Loan or permanent transfer.
Con Te Partiro – Time to say goodbye
As stated in the introduction, this is the 48th and final published edition of The Mercato. When I first joined Talking League, writing was the main platform that I wanted to contribute towards. Having written the 21-Man Squads series at the new defunct Renegades Sports platform, writing strategic content about NRL Fantasy is something that I’ve always enjoyed. As part of the Talking League team, I didn’t expect to get behind the microphone much or even enjoy doing it.
But having participated in all the shows across the Talking League platform before getting the chance to join Brenton on The Fantasy Game Plan, I’ve discovered that I enjoy the audio side more than the written side. And with that in mind, I’d rather focus my efforts on making The Fantasy Game Plan even better in 2025 and beyond. Fortunately, the Emerging Issues section on The Fantasy Game Plan covers most of the aspects I cover in The Mercato, with the added bonus of getting the thoughts and expertise of Brenton to help analyse the issues each week.
To wrap up, it’s time for a few thank you’s. Firstly, a big thank you to all the people who have read The Mercato and interacted in the comments and DMs across the years. Secondly, a big thank you to the rest of the Talking League team for always being supportive and keeping a healthy discussion of ideas flowing. And finally, a big thank to TK for giving me the freedom to write The Mercato without any restrictions since joining the team.
That’s all for now, enjoy the off-season and we’ll catch you in 2025.
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