Welcome to Fast 5, an article where I give a quick summary on 5 interesting trade options for the round. This will include the top 4 most popular trade ins as of Wednesday, plus my POD of the week for those looking to stray away from the pack.
Ronald Volkman $235k (BE 6) Average: 32 Ownership: 6.4% (+0.90%)
Volkman made a solid start to his NRL career with 32 points against the best side in the comp in the Penrith Panthers. Predicting his scoring from here onwards in difficult, considering his score was mostly made up by tackles (27) with barely any kick metes (38) or run metres (36). He's not going to be playing against the Panthers every week so it would be safe to assume that his tackle count may be reduced and his attacking stats may be increased. It's interesting to note that in his 9 career games of reserve grade he has an average of 43.5 which did include between 100-200 kick metres per game. Overall I think he is a great cash out option for H2H players who aren't concerned about round 17 numbers, who also gives you some HLF cover. His job security looks fairly good, but I wouldn't like to be playing him in my 17 on a weekly basis.
Final Decision: YES
Jahrome Hughes $600k (BE 45) Average: 48.2 Ownership: 9.9% (+0.44%)
I talked up Jahrome in round 14 as a potential borderline keeper and since then has produced roller-coaster scores of 27 and 64. He has also dropped $59k since then, so looks to have a little bit more value. Looking back at his career games at halfback, when he plays alongside Cameron Munster he has an average of 48.7, and without Munster he has an average of 67.1. Now, before you get all excited, just remember that when you are trading in a player for the run home you are interested in their average from this week until the end of the season. If you assume Munster is going to miss the next 3 weeks (injured round 16, origin round 17, rested round 18) and play from round 19-25, that gives Hughes an assumed average of about 54 based on his career averages. So in theory this could be a good trade, but there is a lot risk considering his averages have been affected by 2021 game speed.
Final Decision: NO - unless you want to take a punt
William Kennedy $254k (BE 14) Average: 22.2 Ownership: 4.0% (+0.40%)
Kennedy has been a controversial NRL fantasy player as of late thanks to our boss man TK talking him up despite his recent negative scores. However, I am slowly coming around to liking him as a cash out round 17 option. If you exclude his -6 send off game as an outlier (also yes, I'm including his -4 game in his average since he played the full 80 minutes), his average for the season is 24.7. He is most likely not going to make significant money at this rate, but considering the lack of round 17 cash cows, Kennedy seems to be the pick of the bunch for overall coaches looking to downgrade. If you do end up picking him up, I would be wanting his round 17 score and hopefully never having to play him in my 17 again for the rest of the season. The Sharks easy run home may give him few nice scores along the way, so I guess he cold be a handy loop option on some weeks.
Final Decision: YES - But only for your 21st man spot.
Latrell Mitchell $591k (BE 73) Average: 34 Ownership: 2.3% (+0.33%)
Latrell returns at fullback this week for the Bunnies after a long stint off the field, but seems to be relatively fit after his holiday to America. Looking back on his stats he has averaged 41.7 in his 3 non-injury games this season, which mirrors his average of non-injury matches from past seasons of 45. Personally, I can't see this average changing too much as his ceiling games always seem to cancel out by his floor games. However, if you believe his training camp from the states has turned him into a high repeat effort player, he could be worth a punt considering he is likely to miss out on origin. Regardless, in my opinion he is a wait and see considering his high BE this week, and the risk of making the origin side.
Final Decision: NO
Jake's POD of the week
Mitchell Barnett $589k (BE 36) Average: 40.5 Ownership: 2.9% (Top 100 - 18%, Top 1000 - 9.2%, Top 5000 - 7.36%)
My POD of the week seems to becoming less of a POD in the fantasy community as each day goes by this week. Barnett has become an enticing option as of late due to his shift back to an edge for Newcastle and his round 17 availability. He has a very low sample size of 2 games at 2nd row (excluding his send off game) this season where he has an average of 59.5. This average seems fairly misleading so I had a look back on his games playing 2nd row last season where he achieved an average of 56.7. Interestingly, he had a base of 47 points from purely run metres and tackles, which is a good sign for players like Barnett who also have the ability to break tackles and offload. At his current price and DPP status, I think he is great option to pick up this week. Just note there is always a risk that Fitzgibbon could be recalled at any stage if the Knights keep losing, which could push Barnett back to a 50 minute middle role.
For those coaches who like to play it a bit safer, the other option for a round 17 cut price keeper is Tyson Frizell who comes in at 78k more expensive. In non-injury games this season he has an average of 57.8 which is well above what he is currently priced at. I believe his job security as an 80 minute 2nd rower is a lot safer than Barnett. Personally, I will be looking at bringing in both Barnett and Frizell by round 17 since my team is lacking some of the funds to bring in some of the expensive premium guns like Murray and Cook.
As always, big shout out to footystatistics.com, which is where I do all my statistical research. Good luck to everyone for the week ahead! If you haven’t yet check out the round 16 TLT podcast with TK, Andy and Pat. Also be sure to send your questions in on our live Facebook Q&A at 6pm Thursday with TK, JWarrior and myself.
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