Welcome to Falling Gun, a weekly article where I will analyse the form, output and price of current and former guns to determine the best time for you to pick them up on the run home. Each week, I will focus on three guns from one position that everyone could include in their final teams. With teams potentially looking for a third halves player as cover for Cleary and Cherry-Evans (Hynes selected in the WFB position), this week I will be looking at Adam Doueihi, Dylan Brown and Adam Reynolds as three options that play in Round 17 and will not miss a game on the run home.
Adam Doueihi (577k) (BE 71) (Owned by 0% in Top 100, 0% in Top 1000 and 0.02% in Top 5000)
Team lists today solidify that we have another NRL coach who hates fantasy. Doueihi in 2021 at five-eighth was a HLF/WFB keeper option who averaged 61.4 points (PPM of 0.77) across 14 games. Due returning via the interchange from an ACL injury suffered at the end of last year, Doueihi has registered a PPM of 0.67 without an influx of attacking stats and played a total of 67 minutes at five-eighth across Rounds 15 and 16. While having a respectable average of 40.5 points per game when playing in the centres (not an eligible centre option in fantasy due to already being DPP), Doueihi is not considered a keeper option due to there being better fantasy options in the HLF/WFB position. This 21-point uptick in his scoring at five-eighth is seen through a 0.5 increase in involvement within attacking plays (trys, linebreaks and assists), making a further 8 tackles, running for an extra 20 metres and averaging 221 kick metres per game. With Brooks shifting to hooker when Doueihi is on the field, he becomes the Tigers’ focal point in attack and Hastings swaps to defend on the Tigers’ left edge.
Recommendation – Watch Team List for gameday changes, otherwise avoid until named at five-eighth.
Dylan Brown (667k) (BE 65) (Owned by 20% in Top 100, 16.60% in Top 1000 and 12.62% in Top 5000)
Just like Parramatta, Dylan Brown’s fantasy scores have gone missing. Across the first 12 Rounds, Brown averaged 57.7 points per game at five-eighth. Since spraining his ankle and aggravating some scar tissue against the Raiders in Round 12, Brown has averaged 38.7 points across three games. This is largely due to a decrease of 58.7 run metres per game drying up his attacking stats. Brown has run for 80 metres or less on three occasions (recently in Rounds 14 and 16) in 2022, averaging 35.6 fantasy points in these games and failing to record a tackle bust or make an offload. Ideally and when gaining over 120 run metres on top of his high tackle base, Brown scores 66.4 points fantasy points and is able average 5 tackle busts and nearly 1 offload per game. Compared to being a leader of their attack in the first six rounds and Gutho’s increased control over the team in last three weeks, Brown has lost involvement within 1 attacking play (try, linebreak and assist) per game.
Recommendation – Hold as your third half option. Watch and buy as a cut-price keeper if there is an uptick in his run metres.
Adam Reynolds (778k) (BE 73) (Owned by 3% in Top 100, 3.40% in Top 1000 and 3.00% in Top 5000)
Taking the reins at the Broncos in 2022 has enabled Reynolds to become a fantasy gun in the halves position. Compared to playing second fiddle to Cody Walker at the Rabbitohs, Reynolds has averaged involvement in an additional attacking 1.2 attacking plays (trys, linebreaks and assists) per game this season to become a 56.6 point halves keeper option when playing the 80 minutes. The problem though is his injury history, not playing 80 minutes or missing in five out of the Broncos last eight games. While in attack not digging in as far to the Cowboys defence last week, he recorded below average run and kick metres. With these kick metres picked up by Mam and Reynolds recording five missed tackles taking his games’ base stats down to 27 points (season average of 33.2 points), it was clear to the eye that his performance was hampered by the rib injury.
Recommendation – Hold but avoid for all coaches no matter your team value.
My Top 6 Halves
Nathan Cleary
Nicho Hynes (HLF/WFB Dual)
Daly Cherry-Evans
Cameron Munster
Matt Burton (HLF/CTR Dual)
Adam Reynolds
That’s a wrap for Falling Gun in Round 17. Be sure to check out Talking League’s weekly podcasts as well as other published articles. Remember, strategy and planning for trading in guns at their lowest price is key to maximising your team’s value.
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